Economists grow gloomier on 2024 as central banks delay rate cuts


Source: Financial Times


Combination of stronger US economy in 2023 and stickier inflation trigger downgrades for next year.

Persistently higher interest rates in major economies mean global growth is likely to slow next year after outperforming expectations so far in 2023, economists say.

Output will expand 2.1 per cent in 2024, according to an aggregation of forecasts by the consultancy Consensus Economics, down from the 2.4 per cent the economy is expected to log this year.

Economists have upgraded their expectations of this year’s performance by 1 percentage point since the start of the year because of unexpectedly strong consumer demand and labour markets.

Part of the 2024 slowdown will be the result of “some basic arithmetic effects”, of better output this year flattening growth next, said Simon MacAdam, senior global economist at Capital Economics. However, he added that economists had also “genuinely become more downbeat about prospects in 2024”.

The caution centres on the belief that persistently high demand will keep inflation higher for longer, forcing rate-setters in advanced economies to keep borrowing costs elevated well into next year.

“Services demand continued largely unabated, the labour market has stayed strong, wages have continued to rise,” said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at US bank Citi. “Some of the weakness [anticipated for this year] is being pushed in to 2024.”


In many countries, including the US, “there will be a recession, it’s just going to come later”, said Sheets.

©2024 MNK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD. All rights reserved | This website is under the operation of MNK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD which is licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (license No. AIFM 60/56/2013).

MNK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD (“Company”) is authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (“CySEC”) with authorization number AIFM  60/56/2013. The information contained on this website is provided for general information and does not constitute an offering or legal or other professional advice, nor does it constitute any form of personal recommendation. Accordingly, information on this website is merely intended to raise awareness of issues relating to the Company’s business and by accessing this information you shall be deemed to accept and agree to be bound by the terms of this notice. Information contained on this website is subject to change without notice. It is therefore advisable that the user reviews this Disclaimer and any other notices on this website on a regular basis so that the user is aware of any such amendments of modifications. The distribution of information contained within this website may be restricted in certain jurisdictions by law or regulation and, accordingly, parties who access it are required to inform themselves of any comply with any such restrictions that might apply. Parties interested in accepting any service detailed within this website should inform themselves as to: (i) the legal and regulatory requirements within their country of nationality, residence or domicile; (ii) the tax consequences which might be relevant to the Company’s fund management services; and (iii) any other requirement or restriction which they may encounter. Therefore, the use of any information of materials on this website is entirely at your own risk, for which we expressly exclude liability to the fullest extent permitted by law. It shall be your own responsibility to ensure that any services or information available through this website meet your specific local requirements and/or restrictions. The entire contents of are subject to copyright with all rights reserved. You may download or print individual sections of the site for your personal use and information only provided that you retain all copyright and other proprietary notices. You may not reproduce (in whole or in part), transmit (by electronic means or otherwise), modify, link into or use for any public or commercial purpose the site without the prior written permission of the Company. The information contained withing this website is of a general nature and further information should be sought by contacting us with your specific requirements. This website uses cookies. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive all cookies on this website.